2024 Tepertopian Assembly election (Pacifica)

2024 Tepertopian Assembly election

February 4, 2024 (2024-02-04)
All 100 seats in the Tepertopian Assembly 51 seats needed for a majority
Registered	1,168,882
Turnout	987,331 (84.5%) 0.5pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Fredric Hyde Julie Wright Walton Geldenberg Party M W GUILD Leader since 18 July 2023 2 April 2018 9 October 2019 Leader's seat Atrinch & Central Gerstle, Groß-Reichenbach, & Herzogtum Wesford Last election 27 seats, 24.1% 21 seats, 22.0% 16 seats, 14.6% Seats before 27 21 16 Seats won 23 23 16 Seat change 4 2 Popular vote 199,940 199,086 126,877 Percentage 20.7% 20.6% 13.1 Swing 3.4pp 1.4pp 1.5pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Achim Revie Frieda Berge Christian Rademacher Party C FiO GRAYS Leader since 23 December 2013 15 March 2021 1 January 2018 Leader's seat Unterland Adaca Grasslands Last election 13 seats, 10.3% 11 seats, 11.8% 4 seats, 4.1% Seats before 13 11 4 Seats won 15 8 3 Seat change 2 3 1 Popular vote 107,615 91,419 39,038 Percentage 11.1% 9.5% 4.0% Swing 0.8pp 2.3pp 0.1pp   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Raymond Thorne Lorenz Jahnke N/A Party DDP R&Y Independents Leader since 13 April 2015 26 October 2022 Leader's seat Merpor Heckel (lost) Last election 5 seats, 3.1% 0 seats, 0.8% 3 seats, 2.2% Seats before 5 0 3 Seats won 5 1 6 Seat change 1 3 Popular vote 36,535 21,563 51,897 Percentage 3.4% 2.2% 5.4% Swing 0.3pp 1.4pp 3.2pp
Party affiliation of seat winners by constituency
Composition of the Tepertopian Assembly after the election
Assembly President before election Seymour Farnham The Moderates Elected Assembly President TBD

Legislative elections were held in Tepertopia on 4 February 2024 to elect the members of the 53rd Tepertopian Assembly. Voters were able to elect all 100 seats in the Tepertopian Assembly, spread between the 22 constituencies. In a close race, The Moderates defended their plurality of the first-preference vote by 834 votes, but tied with the Welfare Party in number of seats won. The Merchants' Guild remained stable, while Canon was able to make slight gains. The Future is Ours! lost a quarter of their seats. The Republic & You! entered the Assembly for the first time, winning a seat in Adaca.

Background

In the 2021 Tepertopian Assembly election, The Moderates led by incumbent Assembly President Seymour Farnham won a plurality of 27 seats and thus defended the Assembly Presidency, yet lost vote share and seats. Its main competitor, the Welfare Party, picked up 21 seats, but wasn't able to gain much ground on the Moderates due to a decreased vote share itself. Widely considered to be the winners of the election in regards to raw vote swing, The Future is Ours! won 11 seats, more than doubling their seat count. The Merchants' Guild and Canon remained stable at 16 and 13 seats respectively. Minor parties DDP and The Grays defended their Assembly presences as well.

Procedure

The procedure of Assembly elections is governed by the Assembly Elections Act (Bürgerschaftswahlgesetz), with fundamentals laid down in the Tepertopian Articles of Union.

Article 44 of the Articles of Union stipulates that 90 days before the Assembly is due to be dissolved, the Protector of Tepertopia shall schedule an Assembly election, to be held between 90 and 120 days after being scheduled. The referenced dissolution of the Assembly is regulated in Article 49, requiring the Assembly to be dissolved three years after its constituting session. Since the 52nd Tepertopian Assembly constituted on 3 February 2021, the election was to be scheduled on 3 November 2023, with the possible dates for the election being February 4th, 11th, 18th, and 25th, 2024. The Protector scheduled the election for 4 February.

Two weeks thereafter, candidacy registrations were opened for a period of 30 days, with candidates whose registrations were rejected by the Federal Electoral Commission then having two weeks to challenge this decision before an Administrative Court. On the 60th day following the scheduling, the candidate lists were declared final.

On election day, polling stations were open from 8 AM to 10 PM. Voters were also able to request mail-in ballots up until 14 days before the election. Once the polls closed, the ballot boxes were collected centrally in each constituency overnight, with counting beginning the following day. Preliminary results from the local electoral commissions can usually be expected by the end of the day, with certification by the Federal Electoral Commission typically happening several days after.

According to Article 51 of the Articles of Union, the newly-elected Assembly then has to meet for its constituting session no later than 30 days after election day.

Electoral system

Elections to the Tepertopian Assembly use the single transferable vote (STV). The 100 Assemblypeople are elected from 22 constituencies, each having between three and ten seats up for election. Voters have the option to number any number of candidates on the ballot in descending order of their preference. Ballots are initially counted as one vote for the candidate marked most preferred. If this candidate is elected, all their votes are transferred to the next-preferred candidate who are still in the race at a reduced weight, relative to the total vote surplus to the elected candidate's name (senatorial rules method). Votes for eliminated candidates are transferred to the next-preferred candidate at their current weight.

Constituency boundaries and magnitude remained unchanged from the 2021 Tepertopian Assembly election.

Results

Results were certified by the Federal Electoral Commission on 14 February 2024, nine days after counting first commenced and ten since the polls closed.

The Moderates once more defended their plurality of the first-preference vote, albeit by only 834 votes and .1% due to again losing vote share. They also fell to 23 seats, tieing with the Welfare Party, which managed to recoup their lost vote share from the last election and finished on 20.6% of the first-preference vote. Finishing third, the Merchants Guild dropped to 13.1% but remained at 16 seats, while Canon increased their vote share to 11.1% and won two additional seats for a total of 15. The Future is Ours! suffered a loss of a sixth of their vote share and over a quarter of their seats, winning eight.

In terms of vote share, small parties and independents were the big winners of the election, winning a combined 25.1% of first preferences, an increase of 7.9pp. Nonetheless, this did not widely translate into increased seat counts, with only The Republic & You! newly entering the Assembly with one Assemblywoman, the Digital Democratic Party defending their five seats, and The Grays even losing a seat. The cause of this were their voter's lower preferences often ignoring other small parties and instead ranking candidates from one of the established parties highly.

2024 Tepertopian Assembly election – 4 February 2024

Party		First-preference votes			Seats
		Count	%	Swing (pp)	Count	Change
	The Moderates	199,940	20.66	3.4	23	4
	Welfare Party	199,086	20.57	1.4	23	2
	Merchants' Guild	126,877	13.11	1.5	16
	Canon	107,615	11.12	0.8	15	2
	The Future is Ours!	91,419	9.45	2.3	8	3
	The Grays	39,038	4.03	0.1	3	1
	Digital Democratic Party	36,535	3.78	0.3	5
	The Republic & You!	21,563	2.23	1.4	1	1
	The Right Way	19,559	2.02	0.5	0
	Tepertopian Agricultural League	16,792	1.74		0
	Socialist Party of Tepertopia	16,172	1.67	0.4	0
	Conservative Party of Tepertopia	8,574	0.89	0.2	0
	Rainbow Alliance	5,806	0.60	New	0	New
	Arise Valetria!	5,131	0.53	0.1	0
	Alliance pro Tepertopia	5,026	0.52	New	0	New
	Tepertopians for Animals	4,786	0.49	0.1	0
	Grassroots Tepertopia	3,493	0.36	New	0	New
	Team Grattelmann	3,427	0.35	New	0	New
	Harmonist Party	2,845	0.29		0
	ThePragmatists.	1,298	0.13	New	0	New
	The Silent Majority	971	0.10		0
	Independents	51,897	5.36	3.2	6	3
Total		967,750	100.00%	–	100	–
Valid votes		967,750	98.03%
Invalid/blank votes		19,481	1.97%
Total votes		987,331	–
Registered voters/turnout		1,168,882	84.47%

Voting summary

First-preference vote share The Moderates   20.7% Welfare   20.6% Merchants' Guild   13.1% Canon   11.1% The Future is Ours!   9.5% The Grays   4.0% Digital Democratic   3.8% The Republic & You!   2.2% The Right Way   2.0% T.A.L.   1.7% Socialist   1.7% Others   4.3% Independent   5.3%

First-preference vote share of constituencies contested The Moderates   20.7% Welfare   20.6% Merchants' Guild   13.1% Canon   11.1% The Future is Ours!   9.5% Digital Democratic   6.9% The Grays   5.0% The Republic & You!   3.7% T.A.L.   2.9% The Right Way   2.8% Socialist   2.8% Others   14.1% Independent   5.7%

Seats summary

Assembly seats The Moderates   23% Welfare   23% Merchants' Guild   16% Canon   15% The Future is Ours!   8% Digital Democratic   5% The Grays   3% The Republic & You!   1% Independent   6%

Assembly seats out of candidates nominated The Moderates   56.1% Canon   53.6% Welfare   52.3% Merchants' Guild   51.6% Digital Democratic   50.0% The Future is Ours!   26.7% The Grays   17.7% The Republic & You!   8.3% Independent   12.2%

Seats changing parties

Constituency	Incumbent's party		Winner's party
Adaca		The Future is Ours!		The Republic & You!
Arbor & Nair		The Grays		The Moderates
Atrinch & Central		The Moderates		The Grays
Gerstle, Groß-Reichenbach & Herzogtum		The Moderates		Independent
		The Future is Ours!		Merchants' Guild
Grasslands		Independent		Welfare Party
Hathamia & Partania		The Moderates		Canon
Merpor		The Moderates		Independent
		The Future is Ours!		Welfare Party
Riverside		The Grays		Canon
Peninley		Merchants' Guild		Independent
Unterland		The Moderates		Independent

Incumbents who lost their seats

Party		Seats lost	Name	Constituency	Year elected
	The Moderates	8	Dr. Karl-Otto Bergmann	Gerstle, Groß-Reichenbach & Herzogtum	2017
			Erika von Dresbach-Schwehr	Unterland	2011
			Mary-Jane Forman	Atrinch & Central	2021
			Barry Steven Gardner	Bellver	2021
			David Hopkins	Adaca	2021
			Dr. Stephanie Myles-Hopkinson	Merpor	2014
			Theodore Patrick Newman	Hathamia & Partania	2011
			Kai Martin Winkelmeyer	Oberland & Stadt	2017
	Welfare Party	1	Dr. Jane Hoffman	Riverside	2021
	Merchants' Guild	2	Erich Schlögl	Peninley	2002
			Rose Spurlocke	Wesford	2017
	The Future is Ours!	1	Darren Doyle	Merpor	2021
	The Grays	1	Claus-Dieter Kröger	Arbor & Nair	2021
	Independent	1	Dr. Monica Walton	Grasslands	2021

Aftermath

Constituting session of the 53rd Assembly

The 53rd Assembly will have to constitute by Wednesday, March 6th, 2024.